首先，政客们和普罗大众忽视的是中国在世界上购买的商品和服务就会更便宜。比如说， 我们以国际石油市场为例。国际石油市场是以美元标价的。现在，假如我们让人民币对美元的价值翻一倍—将会发生什么情况呢？ 首先，石油价格对中国人已经降了50%（因为现在他们可以比以前购买两倍多的美元），中国人可以用同样的价格购买两倍多的石油了。这就造成美国将要以更高的代价竞争全球石油供应。 由于石油本身是美国经济的发动机。美国的制造业，每个人开的车，或购买任何产品—石油是等式的一部分。因此，所有的商品价格就会上升，对所有美国人来说通货膨胀率将会显著增加。
Punishing China’s Currency Won’t Help USA
By Tadie (October 14th, 2011)
This past week the United States Senate voted overwhelmingly to punish countries who in their view manipulate their currencies for their own economic purposes. While the legislation does not specifically name China the intent and spirit of the vote was all directed at China.
The problem with this view – punishing China – will not help the USA and may well indeed hurt the USA as much as it does China. While it may be politically expedient and extremely popular to pass this legislation and of course makes everyone feel good the results of this action are hard to gauge or determine at this point there are some obvious things that will happen if and when the Yuan ( RMB ) appreciates more versus the dollar.
The first thing that politicians and the general public overlook is that all the goods and services that China buys on the world market will now be cheaper. As an example let’s look at the global oil market. The oil market is priced in US dollars. Now, hypothetically let’s assume the RMB doubles in value versus the dollar – what happens? Well, for one the price of oil has gone in price for the Chinese by 50% ( since now they can buy twice as many dollars as they did before ) and the Chinese can now buy twice as much oil for the same price. It creates a situation where the USA could and probably would have to compete for global oil supplies at a much higher price. Since oil itself is the driver of the US economy and its manufacturing industry as well as everyone who drives a car or buys virtually any product – oil is part of the equation. So, prices of all goods will rise and inflation will increase significantly for all Americans.
Now, with prices increasing more than they have in the past 20 years interest rates would increase significantly as well since interest rates are determined by inflation and some real return on capital Higher interest rates will now slow down our home building market which will slow down virtually every industry in this country since housing, particulary new housing, is such a huge part of our economy.
Also, the Chinese, with their new found purchasing power for cheaper dollars could buy more US A properties or companies – like oil companies – since now they would be only half the price they were before.
A declining value of the US dollar versus the RMB would also just make Chinese products more expensive and wouldn’t necessarily create jobs in the USA or bring jobs back to the USA since China may still be less expensive versus a US product – but still more expensive than before.
So, in summary, the approach the US Senate is taking will not help the USA and in my opinion will only hurt the USA, injure US citizens with higher prices and very likely only create a trade war where we all lose.
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