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惩罚中国货币无助于美国

宋先生 2011-11-08


文/罗杰 翻译/丹奇

10/14/2011

过去一周,美国参议院以压倒性多数通过一项对那些为了其经济目的而操纵汇率的国家进行惩罚的议案。虽然立法者们没有明确点中国的名,但是此次投票矛头直指中国。

关键是这个惩罚中国的观点对美国没有帮助,实际上对美国有害也对中国有害。虽然这个议案的通过在政治上是权宜之计,极受欢迎,让每个人都感觉良好。但是这个时候这个行动的结果却是不好估量的或确定的。因为如果或当人民币对美元升值更多的话,很明显有些事情将会发生。

首先,政客们和普罗大众忽视的是中国在世界上购买的商品和服务就会更便宜。比如说, 我们以国际石油市场为例。国际石油市场是以美元标价的。现在,假如我们让人民币对美元的价值翻一倍—将会发生什么情况呢? 首先,石油价格对中国人已经降了50%(因为现在他们可以比以前购买两倍多的美元),中国人可以用同样的价格购买两倍多的石油了。这就造成美国将要以更高的代价竞争全球石油供应。 由于石油本身是美国经济的发动机。美国的制造业,每个人开的车,或购买任何产品—石油是等式的一部分。因此,所有的商品价格就会上升,对所有美国人来说通货膨胀率将会显著增加。

那么,随着价格比过去20年要增加更多,利率也会显著增加。因为...


文/罗杰 翻译/丹奇

10/14/2011

过去一周,美国参议院以压倒性多数通过一项对那些为了其经济目的而操纵汇率的国家进行惩罚的议案。虽然立法者们没有明确点中国的名,但是此次投票矛头直指中国。

关键是这个惩罚中国的观点对美国没有帮助,实际上对美国有害也对中国有害。虽然这个议案的通过在政治上是权宜之计,极受欢迎,让每个人都感觉良好。但是这个时候这个行动的结果却是不好估量的或确定的。因为如果或当人民币对美元升值更多的话,很明显有些事情将会发生。

首先,政客们和普罗大众忽视的是中国在世界上购买的商品和服务就会更便宜。比如说, 我们以国际石油市场为例。国际石油市场是以美元标价的。现在,假如我们让人民币对美元的价值翻一倍—将会发生什么情况呢? 首先,石油价格对中国人已经降了50%(因为现在他们可以比以前购买两倍多的美元),中国人可以用同样的价格购买两倍多的石油了。这就造成美国将要以更高的代价竞争全球石油供应。 由于石油本身是美国经济的发动机。美国的制造业,每个人开的车,或购买任何产品—石油是等式的一部分。因此,所有的商品价格就会上升,对所有美国人来说通货膨胀率将会显著增加。

那么,随着价格比过去20年要增加更多,利率也会显著增加。因为利率是由通货膨胀率和真正的资本回报率决定的。更高的利率现在就会减缓我们的建房市场,并将减慢这个国家基本上每个行业因为住房,特别是住房是我们经济如此巨大的一部分。

美元价值的下跌相对于人民币将使中国产品更加昂贵,而且并不一定能在美国创造就业机会或把工作机会还给美国。因为中国相对于美国产品还是可以更便宜的—但是还是会比以前更贵。

因此,总而言之,美国参议院采取的方式将无助于美国,我个人认为只会伤害美国,以更贵的价格伤害美国人民,并且非常可能制造贸易战,那样的话,我们全是输家!



(附原文)



Punishing China’s Currency Won’t Help USA

By Tadie (October 14th, 2011)

This past week the United States Senate voted overwhelmingly to punish countries who in their view manipulate their currencies for their own economic purposes. While the legislation does not specifically name China the intent and spirit of the vote was all directed at China.

The problem with this view – punishing China – will not help the USA and may well indeed hurt the USA as much as it does China. While it may be politically expedient and extremely popular to pass this legislation and of course makes everyone feel good the results of this action are hard to gauge or determine at this point there are some obvious things that will happen if and when the Yuan ( RMB ) appreciates more versus the dollar.

The first thing that politicians and the general public overlook is that all the goods and services that China buys on the world market will now be cheaper. As an example let’s look at the global oil market. The oil market is priced in US dollars. Now, hypothetically let’s assume the RMB doubles in value versus the dollar – what happens? Well, for one the price of oil has gone in price for the Chinese by 50% ( since now they can buy twice as many dollars as they did before ) and the Chinese can now buy twice as much oil for the same price. It creates a situation where the USA could and probably would have to compete for global oil supplies at a much higher price. Since oil itself is the driver of the US economy and its manufacturing industry as well as everyone who drives a car or buys virtually any product – oil is part of the equation. So, prices of all goods will rise and inflation will increase significantly for all Americans.

Now, with prices increasing more than they have in the past 20 years interest rates would increase significantly as well since interest rates are determined by inflation and some real return on capital Higher interest rates will now slow down our home building market which will slow down virtually every industry in this country since housing, particulary new housing, is such a huge part of our economy.

Also, the Chinese, with their new found purchasing power for cheaper dollars could buy more US A properties or companies – like oil companies – since now they would be only half the price they were before.

A declining value of the US dollar versus the RMB would also just make Chinese products more expensive and wouldn’t necessarily create jobs in the USA or bring jobs back to the USA since China may still be less expensive versus a US product – but still more expensive than before.

So, in summary, the approach the US Senate is taking will not help the USA and in my opinion will only hurt the USA, injure US citizens with higher prices and very likely only create a trade war where we all lose.









Read more: 美国人看美国(二):惩罚中国货币无助于美国 - 丹奇的日志 - 贝壳村 -
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  • 宋先生
    美国对于中国货币的观点

    作者: 罗杰 翻译: 丹奇



    美国一般认为中国通过压低其人民币价值与其他货币价值对比(比较显著的是美元)来操控其货币以保持其出口经济,维持其基础制造行业的就业率并刺激经济的成长—加上其庞大的外汇储备(以美元,欧元和日元储备为主)

    美国和欧洲盟友的基本想法首要的是政治因素---他们(美国和欧洲)已经在过去的十年里失去了制造业基础给中国,因为中国加入WTO(国际贸易组织),在美国获得最惠国待遇(贸易)。认为中国提供了大量的低廉劳动力。而且,没有环境法或执法不严也是对美国和欧洲企业很有吸引力的。

    在美国对政治类型的关注(美国国会和总统)是政治本质之一。美国公民(选民们)对美国目前的经济环境和高失业率很忧虑。值得注意的是,在过去十年的头五年,对中国日益增长的经济力量甚少或几乎没有任何关注。

    一部分的问题是美国人没有注意到他们才是问题的一部分。这是“鸡和鸡蛋”的问题。美国人说“现在什么都是中国造的”,但是中国会说 “你们的公司来这里追求廉价的劳动力好提高利润”。值得注意的是美国人并不需要买中国造的商品。但是同样值得注意的是,他们也不想付不必要的代价购买“美国货”。 这就是一个老式的政治问题:每个人都同意我们必须“宰杀一些母牛”但是没人愿意宰杀自己的母牛。每个人都在期待其他人做出牺牲。

    恕我直言,中国在“操纵”汇率是完全没有异议的的。然而,同样的说法,也完全可以套在美国和其他的经济实体上(日本,德国,英国等)。其他国家只不过用其他方式进行操纵---他们用赤字开支,基本上就是提高他们自己的货币供应(印钞票),就像任何过度供应的商品一样(货币就是商品之一,恰如其分)。制造了市场的“失衡”,从而降低价格,在这里就是货币价值。

    国家这么做的理由很明显,驱动出口。中国也是如此。其他国家与中国的矛盾是因为,中国,目前,好像赢了这场游戏。

    现在,其他国家的问题是,如果中国决定让其货币升值(也许高达40%),中国的购买力一个晚上就会呈指数级提升。让我们想想世界上以美元为币值的基础产品—石油。如果中国的货币升值40%,那他们在世界市场上购买石油就可以少支付30%费用!这个经济动态本身就可以对其他经济体制造大量的问题――最引人注目的就是中国获得大量储备的能力,基本上保持了珍贵和有限能源供应和生产的巨大动力 - 这是所有的工业经济体(主要是美国)所依赖的。

    如果中国控制,或拥有大量的股份,或购买大量储备和生产力的能力,他们就能阻碍或者甚至削弱西方经济,通过拒绝其他经济体对目前商品供应的获取或提高价格来削弱那些经济体(通货膨胀,减少生产),其结果是对中国出口更加依赖。

    不幸的是,对西方而言,政客们习惯于“迎合”选民,从众心理――也就是说,受民意支配,而不是对这样的行动可能导致这种后果的反响进行合理的讨论

    现在对中国围攻听起来挺好,特别是自从过去10年我们的经济(西方整体上)正在遭受经济危机,萎靡不振。也许这就是我们文化的一部分――这不是我们的“过错”,我们需要有别的人可以进行指责。

    美国民众对世界或本国经济缺乏理解,也许在中国也是如此。然而,美国政客们依赖于特殊利益集团,大众民意或投票人群――因此,如果缺乏透明的信息,那么这个错误的信息就会一直持续到选举日。

    在美国,目前的民意就是中国令我们失去成千上万的工作。我会说,这是真的。但是,中国也维持了我们的低利息(通过为我们庞大的政府开支进行融资),并供应便宜的商品(保持低通货膨胀)。在这里,你听不到这方面的争论――这不是人们愿意听到的。这也不是政客或媒体在他们的信息里导向的。

    对美国人来说,很容易说是中国的错。在某种程度上是这样,是美国的管理层和政客煽动了这个问题。

    总的来说,在美国,我们只是需要有人被责备。这就是美国特色。



    (原文如下)

    U.S. Views on China currency:

    By Tadie, Economist

    The USA generally holds the view that China manipulates its currency by holding down its value versus other currencies ( notably the dollar ) to maintain its export driven economy, keep employment high in the base manufacturing sector and fuel economic growth – also adding to its massive holdings of foreign currency reserves ( held in dollars, euros and yen ).

    The base thought in the USA and its Euro allies is first and foremost a political one – that they ( the USA and Europe ) have been losing their manufacturing base to China over the past decade since China’s entry into the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) and gaining MOST FAVORED NATION STATUS ( for trade ) in the USA. The thought is that China offers a massive labor pool at inexpensive rates. Also, lax enforcement or non existence of environmental laws also is attractive to firms in the USA and Europe.

    The concern on political types in the USA ( the U.S. Congress and President ) is one of a political nature. The citizenry ( voters ) are upset regarding the current economic situation and high unemployment in the USA. It is worth noting that in the first half of the decade ( 2000 to 2005 ) there was little concern and even less talk of China’s growing economic power.

    Part of the problem is that Americans fail to note that they themselves are part of the problem. It’s a “chicken and egg” issue. Americans say “everything is now made in China” but China will say “your companies came here for cheap labor to increase profits”. It’s well worth noting that Americans do not have to buy Chinese made goods. It’s also worth noting that they don’t want to pay the necessary price to “buy American”. It’s the old political problem where everyone agrees we have to “kill some cows” but nobody wants to kill their own cow. Everyone expects someone else to sacrifice.

    Now, to say China “manipulates” its currency is my view absolutely true. However, the same can be said of the USA and every other large economy ( Japan, Germany, the UK, etc ). The other countries just do it in another manner – they use deficit spending, essentially increasing the supply of their own currency ( printing money ) which like an over supply of any commodity ( and money is a commodity, a fiat one, but a commodity none the less ) creates an imbalance in the “market” and hence drives down the price, or in this case the value of the currency.

    Countries do this for an obvious reason, to drive exports. China does the same thing. The problem countries have with China is that China seems to be winning this game, for the time being.

    Now, the problem for the other countries if China decides to allow its currency to rise in value ( perhaps by as much as 40% ) is that China’s purchasing power increases exponentially overnight. Let’s think of one of those base products in the world that is priced in Dollars – Oil. If China’s currency rose in value by 40% versus the Dollar overight then the price it pays for oil on the world market would be 30% less ! That economic dynamic alone could create massive problems for other economies – most notably the ability of China to acquire massive reserves and essentially hold huge power over the precious and finite supply and production of energy – which all the industrial economies ( most notably the USA ) depend upon.

    If China did control or have a large share or the ability to purchase large reserves or production they could essentially hinder or even cripple western economies by either denying access to current supplies or driving the price so high that it creates crippling economic effects in those economies ( inflation, reduced production ) and hence even more dependence on China exports.

    Unfortunately, for the west, politicians are prone to “play” to the voters and follow “mob” thought – that is to say and do what popular opinion dictates, rather than having a reasonable discussion of the repercussions of what such actions could cause in consequence.

    It sounds good to “bash” China now, especially since our economy ( and the west as a whole ) is suffering the malaise of the financial meltdown of the past decade. Perhaps it’s part of our culture – it’s not our “fault” and we need someone to blame.

    There’s a real lack of knowledge on the American populace side as to world or domestic economics, perhaps in China, too. However, politicians in America are beholden to special interest groups, popular opinion and voting groups – so if less than a transparent message works then that’s what you run with all the way to the election.



    In America, the popular opinion now is that China cost us jobs, millions of them. I would say that is true. But, China has also kept interest rates low here ( by financing our massive government spending ) as well as supplying with inexpensive goods ( keeping inflation low ). You won’t hear that side of the argument here – it’s not what people want to hear. It’s not what the politicians or media “spin” in their message.

    To Americans its easy to say its China’s fault. In part it is, but American management and politicians instigated the problem.

    In general, in America, we just need somebody to blame. It’s the American thing to do.





    Read more: 美国人看美国:美国对于中国货币的观点 - 丹奇的日志 - 贝壳村 -
  • 宋先生
    典型的经济学外行观点
  • 宋先生
    因此,总而言之,美国参议院采取的方式将无助于美国,我个人认为只会伤害美国,以更贵的价格伤害美国人民,并且非常可能制造贸易战,那样的话,我们全是输家!
    =================

    “价值”不中立。
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