The former Jam frontman's album Wake up The Nation was announced as one of the 12 LPs that made it onto the shortlist yesterday.
But Weller told the Daily Mirror that he didn't think he stood a chance.
"I'm glad the record is going to get more recognition. I don't know about winning as normally the outsider wins."
Kit Downes Trio and Villagers are this year's outsiders with both placed at 12/1 by William Hill.
Weller was previously nominated for the Mercury Prize for Wild Wood in 1994
This year he is up against the likes of Dizzee Rascal, Foals, Mumford & Sons, Laura Marling and The xx.
The winner will be announced in a ceremony on September 7 in London