knowledge is literally prediction," said Morey. "Knowledge is anything that increases your ability to predict the outcome. Literally everything you do you're trying to predict the right thing. Most people just do it subconsciously."
Amos had his own theory, which he called "features of similarity." He argued that when people compared two things, and judged their similarity, they were essentially making a list of features. These features are simply what they notice about the objects. They count up the noticeable features shared by two objects: the more they share, the more similar they are; the more they don't share, the mo...
He'd always been good at preparing himsefl for not getting what he wanted, and in the grand scheme of things this was not a hard blow. He was fine with who he was and waht he had done. He could now safely imagine what he would done had he won the Nobel Prize. He would have brought Amos's wife and children with him. He would have appended to his Nobel lecture his eulogy of Amos. He would have ca...
1. the background of my book Moneyball. 2. the trend(data driven analysis) in different industries 3. the failure of making predictions from data analysis 4. among the criticism of my book, a relevant one: my theory is an illustration of an unappreciated work from a pair of psychologists. 5. my aroused curiosity on the process where these psychologists worked out the working of minds. and this ...
...Now Danny wanted to explore regret, and other emotions, from the opposite direction. He wanted to study how people undid events that had already happened. Both he and Amos could see how sch a study might feed into their work on both judgment and decision making. "There is nothing in the framework of decision theory that would prohibit the assignment of utilities to states of frustrated hope,...
Actually, they soon discovered, you had to reduce the amount of the certain loss even further if you wanted to get people to accept it. When choosing between sure things and gambles, people's desire to avoid loss exceeded their desire to secure gain. The desire to avoid loss ran deep, and expressed itself most clearly when the gamble came with the possibility of both loss and gain. That is, whe...
...They connected with each other more deeply than either had connected with anyone else. Their wives noticed it. "Their relationship was more intense than a marriage," said Barbara. "I think they were both turned on intellectually more than either had ever been before. It was as if they were both waiting for it." Danny sensed that his wife felt some jealousy; Amos actually praised Barbara, beh...
The problem was not what they knew, or didn't know. It was their need for certainty or, at least, the appearance of certainty... There was a reason for this: To acknowledge uncertainty was to admit the possibility of error. The entire profession had arranged itself as if to confirm the wisdom of its decisions. Whenever a patient recovered, for instance, the doctor typically attributed the recov...
The difference between a judgment and a prediction wasn't as obvious to everyone as it was to Amos and Danny. To their way of thinking, a judgment ("he looks like a good Israeli army officer") implies a prediction ("he will make a good Israeli army officer"), just as a prediction implies some judgment - without a judgment, how would you predict? In their minds, there was distinction: A predicti...
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