The Great Rebalancing

China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurr...

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China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurred on the recent financial crisis and were the result of unfortunate policies that distorted the savings and consumption patterns of certain nations. Pettis examines the reasons behind these destabilizing policies, and he predicts severe economic dislocations--a lost decade for China, the breaking of the Euro, and a receding of the U.S. dollar--that will have long-lasting effects. Pettis explains how China has maintained massive--but unsustainable--investment growth by artificially lowering the cost of capital. He discusses how Germany is endangering the Euro by favoring its own development at the expense of its neighbors. And he looks at how the U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency burdens America's economy. Although various imbalances may seem unrelated, Pettis shows that all of them--including the U.S. consumption binge, surging debt in Europe, China's investment orgy, Japan's long stagnation, and the commodity boom in Latin America--are closely tied together, and that it will be impossible to resolve any issue without forcing a resolution for all. Demonstrating how economic policies can carry negative repercussions the world over, The Great Rebalancing sheds urgent light on our globally linked economic future.

CHAPTER ONE Trade Imbalances and the Global Financial Crisis 1
Underconsumption 4
The Different Explanations of Trade Imbalance 6
Destabilizing Imbalances 9
We Have the Tools 11
Why the Confusion? 14
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CHAPTER ONE Trade Imbalances and the Global Financial Crisis 1
Underconsumption 4
The Different Explanations of Trade Imbalance 6
Destabilizing Imbalances 9
We Have the Tools 11
Why the Confusion? 14
Some Accounting Identities 17
The Inanity of Moralizing 19
The New Economic Writing 22
CHAPTER TWO How Does Trade Intervention Work? 26
Trade Intervention Affects the Savings Rate 29
Currency Manipulation 32
Exporting Capital Means Importing Demand 34
What Happens If China Revalues the Renminbi? 37
Wealth Is Transferred within China 40
Does China Need a Social Safety Net? 42
CHAPTER THREE The Many Forms of Trade Intervention 47
How Changes in Wealth Affect Savings 50
Wage Growth 52
Trade Policy as the Implicit Consequence of Transfers 55
Financial Repression 58
Higher Interest Rates and Household Wealth 61
Do Higher Interest Rates Stimulate or Reduce Consumption? 64
Currency versus Interest Rates 66
CHAPTER FOUR The Case of Unbalanced
Growth in China 69
What Kind of Imbalance? 74
Growth Miracles Are Not New 78
The Brazilian Miracle 81
Powering Growth 84
Paying for Subsidies 87
Limits to Backwardness 89
The Trade Impact 92
A Lost Decade? 94
Can China Manage the Transition More Efficiently? 96
Some More Misconceptions 97
CHAPTER FIVE The Other Side of the Imbalances 100
Can Europe Change American Savings Rates? 103
How Does Trade Rebalance? 106
Globalization Is Not Bilateral 109
The Global Shopping Spree 113
Trade Remains Unbalanced 115
CHAPTER SIX The Case of Europe 119
The Mechanics of Crisis 122
Too Late 125
German Thrift 128
Forcing Germany to Adjust 131
Two-Sided Adjustment 133
CHAPTER SEVEN Foreign Capital, Go Home! 136
Swapping Assets 139
It's about Trade, Not Capital 142
Trade Imbalances Lead to Debt Imbalances 144
The Current Account Dilemma 147
CHAPTER EIGHT The Exorbitant Burden 150
Why Buy Dollars? 153
It Is Better to Give Than to Receive 157
Foreigners Fund Current Account Deficits, Not Fiscal Deficits 161
Rebalancing the Scales 163
When Are Net Capital Inflows a Good Thing? 166
Can We Live without the Dollar? 168
Why Not Use SDRs? 172
An American Push Away from Exorbitant Privilege 174
CHAPTER NINE When Will the Global Crisis End? 178
Transferring the Center of the Crisis 180
Reversing the Rebalancing 183
Some Predictions 185
The Global Impact 191
Notes 197
Index 205
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