- The challenge of the future
- In the most minimal sense, the future is simply the set of all moments yet to come. But what makes the future distinctive and important is not that it has not happened yet, but rather that it will be a time when the world looks different from today.
- The future of progress can take one of two forms: extensive (1to n) or intensive (0 to 1) progress. extensive progress = globalization, intensive progress = technology
- Our challenge is to create intensive progress (new technologies) to make the 21stcentury more peaceful and prosperous than 20th.
- Startup thinking
- A startup is the largest group of people you can convince of a plan to build a different future.
- Party like it's 1999 and history of the '90s
- Conventional beliefs only ever come to appear arbitrary and wrong in retrospect: whenever one collapses, we call the old belief a bubble. But the distortions caused by bubbles don't disappear when the pop.
- Aburst of euphoria when Berlin Wall came down in '89 ——>USwas in recession by mid-1990s ——> Silicon Valley felt sluggish, Japan seemed to be winning the semiconductor war——> The internet had yet to take off because its commercial use was restricted until late 1992 ——> Tech sector seemed idiosyncratic or even provincial on campus ——> The mosaic browser released in November 1993 changed gives regular people a way to get online in 1993 ——> The stock of Netscape, Yahoo! and Amazon had more than quadrupled by '98, which showed the market was crazy ——> The East Asian financial crises hit in 1997. ——>The old economy could not handle the challenges of globalization, and the New Economy of the internet was the only way forward.
- Development of Paypal. 1. send and receive paymentsoveremail. 2. To incentusers to join the system, Paypal gave new customers $10 for joining and gave $10 more every time they referred a friend. 3. Wall Street Journal ran a story lauding Paypal was worth $500 million.
- Party over from 2000
- DOT-COM BUST:NASDQreached 5,048 in the middle of March 2000 and then crashed to 3,321 in the middle of April. By the time it bottomed out at 1,114 in October 2002.
- Entrepreneurs learned four big lessons: 1. make incremental advances. (Anyone who claims to be able to do something great is suspect, and anyone who wants to change the world should be more humble.) 2. Stay lean and flexible. Planning is arrogant and inflexible. Instead, you should try things out, "iterate," and treat entrepreneurship as agnostic experimentation. 3. Improvethe competition. 4. Focus on product, not sales. If your product requires advertising or salespeople to sell it, it's not good enough. (How can we make good enough product?)
- Happy companies are different
- If you want to create and capture lasting value, don't build an undifferentiated commodity business. All happy companies are different.
- 1. Two categories: perfect competition and monopoly
- 1. 1 Monopolists lie to protect themselves. Since they very much want their monopoly profits to continue unmolested, they tend to do whatever they can to conceal their monopoly—usually by exaggerating the power of their (nonexistent) competition.
- 1. 2. Perfect competition. Non-monopolists exaggerate their distinction by defining their market as the intersection of various smaller markets. e.g., starting a restaurant. Starting a new South Indian restaurant is a really hard way to make money. If you lose sight of competitive reality and focus on trivial differentiating factors—maybe you think your naan is superior because of your great-grandmother’s recipe—your business is unlikely to survive. (这一块和现在写论文很像，基本是把很多具体的场景，知识，以及服务整合在一起，来描述和解决问题。)
The ideology of competition
- Competition means no profits for anybody, no meaningful differentiation, and a struggle for survival.
- Rivalry causes us to overemphasize old opportunities and slavishly copy what has worked in the past.
- If you can recognize competition as a destructive force instead of a sign of value, you’re already more sane than most.
How to be a monopoly?
- ESCAPING COMPETITION will give you a monopoly, but even a monopoly is only great business if it can endure in the future.
- A great business is defined by its ability to generate cash flows in the future.