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Notes of Asian Contagion

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2018-03-29 05:19:56

1.亚洲国家经济发展的成功之处:

balanced budgets, high savings rates, high investment rates, low inflation and openness to the world marketplace

2.受到1997年金融危机波及的几个亚洲国家:

危机起源于泰国,然后传到马来西亚、菲律宾、印度尼西亚,最后到韩国。

3.经济危机对国家经济影响的方面:

危机的前几年,货币贬值35%-80%;GNP严重下降;影响了外商投资信心。

印度尼西亚和菲律宾的贫穷人口较多,受经济危机影响,出现了非常多的赤贫(absolute poverty) 人口。韩国和泰国重新出现了赤贫人口。

经济危机对贫穷人口和中产阶级影响巨大,蕴含着威胁社会稳定的因素。

4.危机的根源:

起初,“an exchange rate problem”,还有人把经济危机归于金融大鳄做空市场;

实际上,源于经济结构问题。

external aspects:

fixed exchange rates, high interest rates, and excessive borrowing from abroad

internal weaknesses:

inadequate supervisory institutions, traditional banking practices, poor investment decisions made by the private sector, asset bubbles in

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1.亚洲国家经济发展的成功之处:

balanced budgets, high savings rates, high investment rates, low inflation and openness to the world marketplace

2.受到1997年金融危机波及的几个亚洲国家:

危机起源于泰国,然后传到马来西亚、菲律宾、印度尼西亚,最后到韩国。

3.经济危机对国家经济影响的方面:

危机的前几年,货币贬值35%-80%;GNP严重下降;影响了外商投资信心。

印度尼西亚和菲律宾的贫穷人口较多,受经济危机影响,出现了非常多的赤贫(absolute poverty) 人口。韩国和泰国重新出现了赤贫人口。

经济危机对贫穷人口和中产阶级影响巨大,蕴含着威胁社会稳定的因素。

4.危机的根源:

起初,“an exchange rate problem”,还有人把经济危机归于金融大鳄做空市场;

实际上,源于经济结构问题。

external aspects:

fixed exchange rates, high interest rates, and excessive borrowing from abroad

internal weaknesses:

inadequate supervisory institutions, traditional banking practices, poor investment decisions made by the private sector, asset bubbles in stock markets and real estate

"Excessive borrowing abroad (primarily by the private sector) is the hall mark of this crisis."(P. 3)

the borrowings of banks and non-banks grew very rapidly

banks increased their net foriegn liabilities by large percentages during the four years prior to the crisis

external indebtedness reached large proportions, exceeding 50% of GDP in Thailand

The private sector was responsible for incurring these large overseas obligations.

short-term borrowings -- burden

“The combination of unhedged foreign liabilities, non-performing domestic assets, and the absence of institutions capable of supervising the banks and protecting small depositors created near perfect conditions for a classic banking panic." (P.8)

The oversupply of Asia's export markets in the late-1990s also contributed to the Crisis of 1997.

5.经济危机与东亚社会:

在爆发经济危机的这些东亚国家中,很多银行借贷是根据私人关系走出判断的,而不是根据真正的商业计划,这就使得资本涌进了投机的和非竞争性的部门与企业。

6. 对于经济危机的三种理论解释:

Political science: the product of familism and cronyism

Economics: the product of a regional panic and an overvalued currency

Market analysts: involving weak banks and real estate speculation, fixed exchange rates, partially overvalued currencies, and political uncertainty

7. 发生97经济危机的几个亚洲国家的共同特征:

Capital account convertibility;

Fixed exchange rates;

Excessive expansion of domestic lending accompanied by gross misallocation of investments by the private sector;

Absence of regulatory and supervisory capacities to control excesses in the financial sector;

Paralysis of political decision making at the onset of the crisis.

8. 泰国、印度尼西亚、韩国

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整理未完待续。

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