The Book of Why 9.3分

Wary17-96
```# The Time of StatisticsCausal inference (WHY?) is an innate ability of humans.Some tens of thousands of years ago, humans began to realize that certain things cause other things and that tinkering with the former can change the latter.引自第1页We are lacking the tools and principles (and languages) to deal with casual quesitons in the complex situations.Scientifc tools are designed to meet scientific needs.引自第4页However, when modern "statistics" developed, statisticans failed to answer the questions about "heredity" and turned to develop a thriving, causality-free enterprise --- "Statistics".When you prohibit speech, you prohibit thought and stifle principles, methods, and tools.引自第5页Causal vocabulary was virtually prohibited for more than half a century.(Statistics) tells us that correlation is not causation, but it does not tell us what causation is.引自第5页Data Science cannot tell "WHY".--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------# Causal RevolutionThe calculus of causation: 1) Causal diagrams: What we know;2) Symbolic language (Resembling algebra): What we want to know;"do(X)" vs. "x"P(L | do(D))
do-operator signifies that we are dealing with an intervention rather than a pssive observation.
(would wash away preexisting differences and provide a valid comparison)

P(L | D)
standard conditional probability is a passive observation (let people decide what to do, affected by various factors)