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CONTENTS

Preface

DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY: Cognitive Decision Research, Social Interaction, Development and Epistemology

Introduction to Decision Making under Uncertainty: Biases, Fallacies, and the Development of Decision Making——Roland W . Scholz

COGNITIVE DECISION RESEARCH

The Theoretical Status of Judgmental Heuristics——Iphma s. Wallaten

The Base Rate Fallacy Controversy——Maya Bar-HiZleZ

The Two Camps on Rationality——Helmut Junqemn

The Role o f Heuristics in Models of Decision—— Groner, …… & Walter F . Biechof

On the Testability of the Availability Heuristic——Klaus Fiedler

Problem Structuring Calculi and Levels of Knowledge Representation in Decision Making——Patrick liwnphrqs & Dim Berkeley

Verbal vs. Numerical Processing o f Subjective Probabilities—— Zimmer

Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision Making——Baruch Fischhoff, Bernard Goitein & Zur Shapka

SOCIAL INTERACTION

Conditions of Violating Individual Rationality——Werner H . Tack

Biases in Group Decision Making——Helmut W. Crott & Johrmnes A . Zuber

The Dependance of Cognition and Behavior in 2x2 Matrice Games——Ulrich Schulz & Theo May

On the Prominence Structure of the Decimal System——I;h*lf Albers & Oisela Albers

DEVELOPMENT AND EPISTEMOLOGY

Conceptual and Theoretical Issues in Developmental Research on the Acquisition of the Probability Concept——Roland W. Scholz & bhnfred Waller

The Perception of Probability Situations in Pupils Aged 12 to 14——Georges GZaeser

The Psychology of Inference and the Teaching of Probability and Statistics: Two Sides of thesame Coin?——J . Michael Shaugnessy

(Mis-) Interpretation of Stochastic Models——Georg Schrage

Randomness and Stochastic Independence - On the Relationship Between Intuitive Notion and Mathematical Definition——Gerd v . Harten & Heinz Steinbring

Decision-Theoretic Paradoxes——Georg Pfzug

€QMMENTS

The Possible and the Profitable Some remarks on the symposium's impact on decision research——Baruch Fischhoff

The Importance of the Fictional for Theories of Knowledge Some remarks on the symposium's impact on cognitive psychology——A l f C. Z6mer

Why are Developmental Psychologists Biased with Regard to the Biasedness o f the Human Subject?

Some remarks on the symposium's impact on developmental psychology——Manfred WaZZer

Individual Decision Making and Social Psydhology Some remrks on the symposium's impact on social psychology——Katrin Borcherding

Towards a Theory of Limited Rationality Some remarks on the symposium's impact on economic theory——Reinhard Selten

Towards an Education for Decision Behavior Some remarks on the symposium's impact on mathematical education——Hans-Georg Steiner

ADDRESSES OF CONTRIBUTORS

ABSTRACTS

AUTHOR INDEX

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