Thinking, Fast and Slow 8.9分
读书笔记 14. Tom W's Specialty
The essential keys to disciplined Bayesian reasoning can be simply summarized:
Anchor your judgment of the probability of an outcome on a plausible base rate. Question the diagnosticity of your evidence.
Both ideas are straightforward. It came as a shock to me when I realized that I was never taught how to implement them, and that even now I find it unnatural to do so.
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